Download Future Savvy: Identifying Trends to Make Better Decisions, by Adam Gordon PDF

By Adam Gordon

There isn't any scarcity of predictions on hand to agencies trying to expect and benefit from destiny developments. it appears important forecasts are ubiquitous in daily communications equivalent to newspapers and enterprise magazines, and in really good assets comparable to govt and think-tank forecasts, advisor studies, and stock-market courses. those assets are an important yet also they are of very combined caliber. whereas we all know a future-focus is essential for strategic imaginative and prescient and organizational readiness, what details from the never-ending sea of assets is legitimate? How have you learnt which predictions to take heavily, which to be cautious of, and which to throw out solely? which of them do you permit advisor your judgements? destiny Savvy offers a hands-on method of judging predictive fabric of all kinds, together with delivering a battery of severe assessments to use to any forecast to evaluate its validity, and decide the best way to healthy it into daily administration pondering. In a colourful e-book with many examples, Adam Gordon synthesizes info evaluation talents and destiny stories instruments right into a unmarried template that enables managers to use systematic "forecast filtering" to bare strengths and weak spot within the predictions they face. the higher leaders' view of the long run, the higher their judgements - and successes - could be. destiny Savvy empowers either enterprise and policy/government decision-makers to take advantage of forecasts properly and so increase their judgment in waiting for possibilities, keeping off threats, and dealing with uncertainty.

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Additional info for Future Savvy: Identifying Trends to Make Better Decisions, Manage Uncertainty, and Profit from Change

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Longer-term horizons put us in a situation where much that we base forecasts on—our base of assumptions—will almost certainly change. Longer forecast period length is one of the factors that makes for analytical situations of high uncertainty and complexity, where the limits of CHAPTER 1: RECOGNIZING FORECAST INTENTIONS ✧ 23 trend-projective methods are reached. Therefore, the length of a forecast is a good indicator of the kind of approach that should be used and gives us a good indication of when a trend-projective or quantitative forecast is likely to have overstepped its realm of competence.

We measure, count, and compute to yield data and we ask, What does the data say? What numbers would be preferable? How do we achieve those numbers? Similarly, we assess businesses by measurements such as return on investment, product cycle times, or rate of “capital turns,” and CHAPTER 2: THE QUALITY OF INFORMATION ✧ 43 judge management by whether it pushes the numbers in the right direction. Business success is judged by numbers even in areas where numbers are hard to assess. The management “Balanced Scorecard,” for example, pushes quantification deep into the nonfinancial aspects of a company.

Population of 1970 was two-thirds what it is today, and consumption of spirits and beer has been flat or declined. In other words the growth in wine consumption points to a change within the market (for health and other reasons) in the context of a steadily rising population, and there is no indication that alcohol consumption is on the rise or that alcoholism can be validly forecast. The poor forecast often omits contextual data in this way. Number laundering and “gossip” Like the children’s game “gossip,” each time data is repeated, it is also liable to be disassociated from its original context and become a bit more mangled in the retelling.

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